A Brief Hiatus

I’m on travel for work this week, so there will likely be no new posts until next week.

A preview of two upcoming posts, which I’ll have up when I return:

First, we’ll take a critical thinking look at the motivation underlying global warming alarmism. Some of the “deniers” have alleged that much of the alarmism is motivated by socialism, or at least an aversion to capitalism. We’ll look into this claim.

Second, we’ll look into whether the U.S. is becoming a “nanny state.”

On Cognitive Dissonance and Gas Price Demagoguery

This post on Coyote Blog is a follow-up to this post, on the subject of how politicians are engaging in demagoguery with respect to gasoline prices.

Here’s the money quote:

The cognitive dissonance required to call for 80% CO2 reductions while simultaneously decrying $3.50 gas prices is just stunning to me.

LOL.

Similarly, I would also point out the hypocrisy of politicians who decry the profits being made by the oil industry (typically 18 to 20 cents per gallon) while simultaneously pushing for European-style taxation levels that would be on the order of several dollars per gallon.

ADDENDUM.  This is what Hillary Clinton said a couple of nights back on Fox New’s The O’Reilly Factor:

In the short term, I do want a gas tax holiday but to pay for it by putting a windfall profits tax on the oil companies…. The oil companies have made out like bandits, and there is no basis for them to have these huge profits. They’re not inventing anything new…. You set a baseline and, above that baseline, you begin to tax their profits.

There you have it.  “There is no basis for them to have these huge profits”? The oil companies are only making 5% or 6% profit on the sale of gasoline. That’s not huge. What’s huge is my federal income tax bracket, you raving socialist lunatic.

Motivational poster/motivator parody: Socialism

Why Have A Space Program?

Or, as detractors of our space efforts usually pose the question: “Why should we be spending so much money exploring space when we have so many problems to be solved here on earth?”

I’ll attack this question on two separate fronts: the cost of our space program, and the benefits from our space program.

First, the cost…

The question seems to presuppose that there exists a lack of money to solve problems on earth. Consider, though, that NASA’s entire budget, approximately $16B a year, is less than 1% of the total federal budget. (During the Apollo program, it peaked at over 5% of the federal budget, but declined considerably in the 1970’s and remains below 1% today.) Meanwhile, the entire federal budget for welfare programs (such as the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), the Child and Adult Care Food Program, the Community Development Block Grant program that provides funding for affordable housing and anti-poverty programs, the Food Stamp Program, Head Start, the Housing Choice Voucher Program, Pell Grants, and Medicare and Medicaid, just to list a few) tops $500B a year — over 30 times NASA’s budget. Seems to me that we are already spending quite a bit to “solve problems here on earth.” The fact that those problems aren’t being solved reflects how the money is being spent, not how much money is being spent. For example, take a look at the failed 40-year “war on poverty” effort that cost over $6 trillion dollars and arguably caused more harm than good.

Second, the benefits…

First, there are countless economic benefits, having to do with increased U.S. competitiveness and new industries and jobs created through technology spin-offs. This article from the National Space Society, titled “Why We Do — And Must — Go Into Space,” cites the 1989 Chapman Research Report that examined only 259 non-space applications (out of an estimated 25,000 - 30,000 applications) of NASA technology during just an 8-year period (1976 - 1984), and found:

  • $21.6 billion in sales and benefits
  • 352,000 (mostly skilled) jobs created or saved
  • $355 million in federal corporate income taxes

These benefits were in addition to the ordinary multiplied effects of any government spending. Similar studies have been done in the past showing how the Apollo program, for instance, has paid for itself many times over purely in terms of increased tax revenues to the federal government. One example (see here) is the November 1971 study released by the Midwest Research Institute, which estimates that “the $25B [in 1958 dollars] spent on civilian space R&D during the 1958 - 1969 period has returned $58B through 1971 and will continue to produce payoffs through 1987, at which time the total payoff will have been $181 billion.” Holy cow, how could we NOT have afforded to do this? The Apollo program actually PRODUCED funding to “solve problems here on earth!”

But there are many other benefits of space exploration, too. These benefits have been covered so well by so many others that I’ll just provide some links:

  • Here is a good list of everyday benefits from the space program.
  • The Space Foundation’s The Case for Space Exploration.
  • This post on The Martian Chronicles blog, titled Nine Good Reasons for Space Exploration. Of particular note: “The majority of the money spent on space exploration goes toward the salaries of thousands of skilled American workers who make NASA’s missions so successful.” It’s not just money launched away into space.
  • This post on the Universe Today blog, wherein the author poses the question “Why should we be spending money exploring space when there are so many problems here on Earth that we need to solve first?” and then invites other space bloggers to provide an answer. My favorite response is from Bill Dunford, who blogs at Riding with Robots on the High Frontier:

Why should we worry about what’s going on outside the cave? We have so many problems here inside in the cave.

Why should we waste time trying to figure out agriculture? We have so much work to do hunting and gathering.

Why should we spend so much effort messing about in boats? We have so many issues here on the land.

Why should we fiddle with those computers? There is so much calculating that still needs to be done with these pencils.

Why should we explore space? We have so many problems here on Earth.

The answer to all these questions is the same: reaching for new heights often creates new solutions, new opportunity and elevated hope back on the ground.

We should NOT spend indiscriminately in space. But moderately-funded space exploration — as one small part of an overall program of basic scientific research — has blessed lives in many ways over the years, from satellites measuring drought conditions to new imaging techniques in hospitals to global communication.

Okay, if you’ve clicked the links, you hopefully get the idea by now.

Summary…

Space exploration is costly, but still costs about 1/30th the amount we’ve been spending on “solving the problems here on earth.” And space exploration, when done correctly, pays for itself in terms of increased economic competitiveness and increased tax revenues. So even if you don’t care about the more intangible and inspirational benefits, it’s hardly fair to claim that a good space program doesn’t make economic sense.

Comments/thoughts?

The Skeptologists

A new TV show is in the makings, called The Skeptologists. Each week the show will take on a popular paranormal or supernatural claim of some kind, anything from haunted houses to bigfoot sightings, and will apply sound scientific methods to see if the claim stands. This format is something like Mythbusters crossed with Ghost Hunters, and should prove to be very entertaining. More importantly, the public could really use a show that teaches them the importance of critical thinking.

The seven Skeptologists are all well known scientists and critical thinkers, including two from my very own blogroll: Dr. Steven Novella, who runs the NeuroLogica Blog, and Dr. Phil Plait, who runs the Bad Astronomy Blog.

The pilot has been filmed and the show is going to be pitched to major networks soon. The show’s producers have started an email campaign to garner support, and you can help.

Now, here’s the trailer:

Are CEOs Overpaid?

Do CEO’s of corporations in America make too much money?

Until very recently, I would have said the answer to this question was an emphatic NO. CEO’s make exactly as much money as they deserve, because they earn exactly what the free market is willing to pay them. Case closed. I always attributed claims that CEO’s made too much money to politically motivated class envy. Really, the very question seems to presuppose that there is such a thing as “too much money,” presumably according to some left-leaning standard of “fairness” and “equality.”

The topic for today’s post was prompted by this post in The Dilbert Blog, wherein Scott Adams pointed out something that I wasn’t fully aware of before: namely, that the board of directors that hires a company’s CEO and negotiates his/her salary is typically comprised of the CEO’s of other corporations.

Oops. This casts a new light on things. It’s tantamount to letting the foxes from one farm guard the hen house on the adjacent farm, and vice versa. Or letting a mangled metaphor copulate with a strained simile. Or something like that. Anyway, it’s pretty obvious that a “good old boy” network of senior executives determining each others’ compensation packages violates the notion of free market forces, and leads to inflated salaries.

Business Week has published some widely quoted statistics on the subject of CEO salaries: In 1970, the average CEO compensation was 11 times higher than the average hourly worker’s wages. In 1980, CEO compensation had risen to 42 times that of the hourly worker; by 1990, it had risen to 85 times higher; and by 2000, to 531 times higher. During this same period, foreign CEOs realized compensation only 5 to 10 times higher than the average hourly worker; thus, the rise in CEO salaries is purely an American phenomenon.

Why did this trend start in the first place? Why did CEO salaries remain pretty much constant up until 1970 and then rise so dramatically? Is there a systemic phenomenon underlying this rise that would explain it, or is this the same kind of “greed creep” that can be observed elsewhere — e.g., in burgeoning federal spending on social programs? Perhaps even the same underlying phenomenon may be contributing to all manner of “greed creep” seen across society in recent decades.

Thoughts? Comments? I’ve got no answers to these questions myself other than speculation. But in this paper on CEO salaries, Russell Whelton examines this issue in detail. He claims the escalation of CEO salaries is related to the decay of ethical behavior in the U.S., and discusses the detrimental impacts of this escalation upon society. I’m not ready to commit to all of his conclusions myself, but it’s certainly possible that he’s on the right track.

But I do know that I’ve moved my opinion much closer to the truth — from “No, CEO’s aren’t overpaid,” to “Yes, something is seriously wrong with the way CEO’s salaries are set.” And moving your opinion closer to the truth is always a good thing, if you’re a critical thinker. As I discussed here, critical thinkers should live in tents, not castles.

Brief Hiatus

Posting will probably be light for the next couple of weeks. I have some traveling to do for work and some other things going on.

I’ll pose two questions for my critical thinking readership to ponder in my absence:

  1. Are CEO’s paid too much? Why/why not?
  2. Should the United States continue to have a manned space program? Why/why not?

These will be the subjects of my first two posts when I return.

Introducing Another Blogroll Entry

Cato Unbound (which is in my blogroll) has a very unique and interesting format. Each month, a question such as “What to do about Iran?” or “How global should government be?” is introduced in an initial essay by one of the world’s leading thinkers on the topic. The ideas in that essay are then tested by the comments and criticisms of equally eminent thinkers, each of whom responds to the initial essay as well as to each other. The resultant stream of essays and counter-essays provides great insights into the subject at hand from the viewpoints of many well-informed experts.

This month’s topic is titled “Can the schools be fixed?” In the lead essay, Richard Rothstein of the Economic Policy Institute revisits the 1983 “A Nation At Risk” study conducted by the Reagan-appointed National Committee on Excellence in Education. Says Rothstein:

In 1983, A Nation at Risk misidentified what is wrong with our public schools and, consequently, set the nation on a school reform crusade that has done more harm than good.

The diagnosis of the National Commission On Excellence in Education was flawed in three respects: First, it wrongly concluded that student achievement was declining. Second, it placed the blame on schools for national economic problems over which schools have relatively little influence. Third, it ignored the responsibility of the nation’s other social and economic institutions for learning.

Rothstein provides rather compelling evidence for each of his three points. I won’t bother reiterating any of that here, though; if interested you can just read the essay. My point in bringing this to your attention is that Cato Unbound is a great resource for would-be critical thinkers, where you can watch and learn as the experts apply carefully crafted arguments to the hot topics of the day.

On Conspiracy Theories

Driving back to the office from lunch last Thursday, I passed a couple of guys standing at the side of Col. Glenn Highway, right across the street from the interchange that leads into Area B at Wright Patterson Air Force Base. They were holding a huge sign saying “9/11 Was An Inside Job.”

There are a multitude of specific technical claims made by those who subscribe to this theory: explosive squibs were used to bring down the towers; the FBI prevented investigation or were prevented themselves by others; the metal debris from the buildings was shipped to China before forensic inspections could be performed; there were too many failures in our air traffic control system and military fighter response to have been a “coincidence;” the list goes on and on.

Rather than attempt to individually address each of the many detailed claims made by the conspiracy theorists, it is sufficient to apply Occam’s Razor. As I said in this post:

Occam’s Razor is a principal often attributed to William of Ockham, a 14th century English logician and Franciscan friar. The principal states that when you have two (or more) competing theories which explain the observed facts, the simplest one is most likely to be the correct explanation. Occam’s razor is not a scientifically proven principle (although there have been some promising efforts to do so), but rather is a heuristic rule of thumb — one that has been empirically shown throughout the history of science to be a good rule to follow. And it is also a good tool for the critical thinker to have in his/her mental toolbox.

In that post, I applied Occam’s Razor to the Apollo moon hoax theory (and a few other issues). Its application to the 9/11 conspiracy theory is similar.

There are two competing scenarios to consider:

(1) 9/11 was an “inside job” involving the intentional destruction of the World Trade Center and other buildings for purposes of providing a pretext to invade Afghanistan and Iraq.

(2) 9/11 was not an inside job, but rather was the result of terrorists hijacking airliners and crashing them into the World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon.

The first of these two scenarios requires us to believe that hundreds (or more likely thousands) of people participated in planning, executing, and covering up the “inside job.” This, in spite of the facts that: (a) NONE of these hundreds or thousands of people have come forward with any admission or confession of this or have leaked any information leading to the conspiracy being exposed; and (b) the media has been unable to find any evidence supporting this conspiracy theory, even though it would be the story of the century were it found to be true.

Occam’s Razor tells us the second explanation — that 9/11 was NOT an inside job — is much more likely to be true, because it is far simpler and fits the observed facts without the need for a multitude of ancillary embellishments.

Ends and Means

In this post on his blog, Keith Burgess-Jackson states there are four different ways to achieve a desired end. Says Keith:

The first is to use force. The second is to use coercion (i.e., the threat of harm). The third is to use manipulation (e.g., deception). The fourth is to use rational persuasion. Only the fourth is respectful of persons, which is a moral imperative. I would argue, from a consequentialist point of view, that only change brought about in the fourth way has any chance of long-term success. The first three means generate resentment, alienation, and backlash. Many people who accept the ends reject the means. Eventually, they come to identify the end with the means and reject the end itself. When that happens, what has been accomplished? Precisely nothing. Indeed, things are worse at that point than they were at the outset.

For some reason, reading this immediately got me to thinking about what passes for a political process in our country these days.

At the risk of gross oversimplification, the political landscape today seems to be a battle between two value sets: (1) egalitarian values, as generally espoused by the left side of the political spectrum; and (2) conservative/traditional values, as espoused by those on the right. Both sides seek to use the power of government to impose their value set upon society. Democrats, for example, want to implement universal health care and a wide range of other programs intended to correct various social injustices. Conversely, Republicans wish to legally define marriage as being between a man and a woman, and they want people to take individual responsibility for themselves rather than rely on government (although the spending and voting records of Republican congressmen these days might suggest otherwise).

The use of the power of government to engineer society according to a particular value set equates to the use of force, in Keith’s model above. If Hillary Clinton’s universal health care plan were put into action, for example, you would be required by law to participate. It would not be optional. You would, in effect, be forced into an egalitarian situation, regardless of whether or not you happen to subscribe to that particular value set.

To get control over the power of government so one can use it to engineer society requires that one first get elected. I think most of us would agree that a fair amount of manipulation occurs as part of this process. Politicians “triangulate” so as to broadly appeal to as many voters as possible. They also often change their positions — or at least the way in which they present their positions — based on what group they are speaking to, and based on whether it’s the primary (where they must appeal to the diehards and extremists within their own party) or the general election (where they must appeal to everyone, both within their party and outside of it).

In accordance with Keith’s model, any change brought about by the use of government to engineer society is never successful in the long-term, and generates resentment, alienation, and backlash. As Keith says: “Indeed, things are worse at that point than they were at the outset.” *cough*war on poverty*cough*

Ours is a pluralistic nation — a nation comprised of people with widely varying value sets. So it would seem to be an extremely unlikely prospect that the rational persuasion method could be used to win people over to a single value set. If our current political process continues, we will be ever more in a situation where half the country is being forced to live under an imposed value set with which they do not agree. This in turn exacerbates the political battle over control of the government for purposes of imposing the chosen value set. As a result, our nation is becoming increasingly polarized.

It would be far better, in my opinion, if the government took no role whatsoever (or more realistically, a minimized role) in engineering society according to any particular value set. Instead, just let society be whatever it ends up being as the aggregate result of the interactions of the free individuals who comprise it. You don’t like gay marriage? Fine, don’t marry someone of the same sex. You think poor people need more assistance? Good for you. Start a non-profit organization to provide charitable assistance to them. Just don’t expect the government to institutionalize your value set in the form of laws and programs.

A fair criticism could be leveled against this idea: namely, that the idea itself expresses a value that could best be described as “liberty” — the liberty to pursue your own value set and not operate under one imposed by government action. Thus the idea I’ve proposed, by the very act of prohibiting the government from engineering society, would force the value set of liberty upon society. I would argue that liberty is far less onerous than the alternative value sets, namely egalitarianism and conservative/traditional values, in that it still enables one to pursue either. But it robs one of the ability to pursue either in the political arena, whereas the same could not be said of liberty.

I would maintain that my idea is also consistent with the Constitution, whereas engineering society according to any other value set is not consistent with the Constitution (at least not if done at the federal level).

So maybe this makes me a Constitutionalist? Hmmm…. reading their “Seven principles,” I get to principle #3 — “Family: One husband and one wife with their children as divinely instituted” — and realize that they are just social engineers too. I’ve actually come to think of myself in recent years as a libertarian. But Keith Burgess-Jackson claims that libertarians are progressives, and I am most assuredly not a progressive. Maybe I don’t understand the use of these terms. Anyone care to help me out?

This Is Wrong

From FoxNews comes this article:

Pachino Hill, 29, must go to Baptist services for eight consecutive Sundays — plus pay a fine and be on probation for a year — for leading police on car chase in October, according to The Quad-City Times.

The Davenport man’s long and violent record dating back to his early teens includes manslaughter, assault and other crimes. The latest traffic infraction was his second such cat-and-mouse with cops in as many years, both of which landed him charges of driving while barred.

Scott County Associate Judge Christine Dalton handed down Hill’s unusual sentence — a program offered by Third Missionary Baptist Church — on Wednesday. If he fails to complete it, he faces up to two years in prison.

This is wrong on so many levels. Do I even need to explain why an American court should not be permitted to compel somebody to attend church services? (And I’m a Christian, by the way, not an atheist.)